XTC(600549) 广发证券·2024-11-07 09:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiamen Tungsten (600549 SH) with a target price of 31 05 yuan per share based on a 24x PE multiple for 2024 [5] Core Views - Tungsten and molybdenum materials: Integrated layout and new product upgrades are expected to drive steady profit growth The company has achieved an integrated layout in the tungsten and molybdenum sector with a self-sufficiency rate of over 70% for terminal tungsten products Deep processing products such as cutting tools and fine tungsten wires achieved a gross margin of over 40% in 2023 and are expected to see volume growth from 2024 to 2026 [2] - Rare earth materials: Expansion of magnetic material capacity and downstream motor layout will enhance added value and open growth space Under the carbon neutrality trend demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue growing The company's magnetic material capacity is projected to increase from 0 3 million tons in 2018 to 2 2 million tons by 2026 [2] - Battery materials: The industry is at a bottom with potential for profit reversal as downstream demand continues to grow Battery material prices stabilized in 2023-2024 and global demand for power batteries is expected to grow at over 35% annually from 2024 to 2026 driven by the deep penetration of new energy vehicles [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 34 62 billion yuan in 2024 to 41 14 billion yuan in 2026 with a CAGR of 7 2% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1 83 billion yuan in 2024 to 2 33 billion yuan in 2026 with a CAGR of 11% [4] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 1 29 yuan in 2024 to 1 64 yuan in 2026 [4] Business Segments Tungsten and Molybdenum - The company has achieved full industry chain coverage from mining to deep processing with a self-sufficiency rate of over 70% for tungsten resources [2] - New products such as fine tungsten wires and cutting tools are expected to drive growth with fine tungsten wire sales reaching 8 68 billion meters in 2023 [51] - The company plans to expand high-end deep processing capacity including hard alloys cutting tools and tungsten wires from 2023 to 2025 [64] Rare Earth - The company has a complete rare earth industry chain from mining to deep processing products [14] - Magnetic material capacity is expected to grow significantly from 0 3 million tons in 2018 to 2 2 million tons by 2026 [2] - The company is strengthening cooperation in the rare earth sector to ensure stable and high-quality raw material supply [78] Battery Materials - The company covers mainstream customers in the battery material industry and continues to increase production [3] - Revenue from battery materials accounted for 43% of total revenue in 2023 with a gross margin of 9% in the first half of 2024 [24] - The company is expanding its product line including cobalt lithium ternary materials and hydrogen energy materials [14] Industry Trends Tungsten - Tungsten demand is expected to grow driven by hard alloys cutting tools and tungsten wires with hard alloys accounting for 59% of total tungsten consumption in 2023 [39] - The supply of tungsten is tight with limited new capacity expected to support higher tungsten prices in the future [47] Rare Earth - Rare earth prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply and growing demand from industries such as wind power new energy vehicles and industrial motors [72] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth in rare earth permanent magnet demand driven by carbon neutrality policies [76] Battery Materials - The global power battery market is expected to grow at over 35% annually from 2024 to 2026 driven by the deep penetration of new energy vehicles [3] - The company's battery material business is expected to see steady profit growth as demand for new energy vehicles continues to rise [3]