QINCHUAN(000837) Huaan Securities·2024-11-07 10:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a positive year-on-year growth in net profit for Q3, driven by a recovery in the manufacturing sector and the implementation of an equity incentive plan to enhance operational vitality [1][3] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 2.886 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 56 million yuan, a decrease of 34.31% year-on-year [1][3] - The manufacturing PMI in China returned to the expansion zone at 50.1% in October 2024, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 16.57%, down 1.49 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 2.89%, down 0.58 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 865 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.26%, and a net profit of 13 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 166.47% [1] - The company plans to implement an equity incentive plan, granting up to 19 million restricted stocks to 194 individuals, including senior management and key employees, to motivate performance [1][3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revised earnings forecast for 2024-2026 indicates revenues of 4.027 billion yuan, 4.545 billion yuan, and 5.138 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 81 million yuan, 123 million yuan, and 159 million yuan [3] - The diluted EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.08 yuan, 0.12 yuan, and 0.16 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 126, 83, and 64 times [3] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the machine tool industry, benefiting from domestic substitution and accelerated exports, which are expected to enhance its competitive advantage [3]