Core Insights - The report indicates that rising US Treasury yields are suppressing equity prices, leading to a weak performance across most asset classes [5][7][10] - In the A-share market, the official manufacturing PMI for October rose to 50.1, reflecting a seasonal rebound influenced by recent policy measures [5][7] - The report anticipates a potential upward movement in A-shares following the resolution of upcoming macro events, with a focus on sector rotation opportunities [5][7] Asset Class Tracking - The performance of major asset classes from October 28 to November 1 shows that domestic bonds outperformed, followed by Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, A-shares, and commodities [7][9] - The report notes that the A-share market is currently active, with a trading volume maintaining around 2 trillion, despite a decline in major indices [7][10] Stock Market Analysis - The report highlights that major indices in the domestic market mostly experienced fluctuations and declines, with the CSI 500 and small-cap indices showing relatively better performance [10][11] - The report identifies key sectors to watch, including technology growth, financials represented by brokerages, and cyclical sectors benefiting from economic recovery [5][10] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is benefiting from the pressure on equities, with major interest rates trending downward due to easing liquidity and supportive policy expectations [6][13] - The report indicates that long-term interest rates may have limited downward space, while short-term rates could continue to decline under the current loose monetary policy [6][13] Commodity Market Overview - The report notes that both gold and oil prices have declined due to rising US Treasury yields and easing geopolitical tensions, with oil prices expected to remain volatile in the short term [6][16] - The report suggests a cautious approach to gold investments, recommending buying on dips due to potential technical corrections and uncertainties surrounding the US elections [6][16] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The report mentions that the AH share premium has risen to 10.36%, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [18] - The risk premium for the entire A-share market is noted to be 3.40%, which is above its historical median, suggesting a potential opportunity for investors [18]
大类资产跟踪周报:美债走高形成压制,多数资产弱势震荡
Caixin Securities·2024-11-07 10:27