风电“御风前行”系列四兼24Q3财报总结：整机、塔筒桩基拐点将至，铸锻件格局有望重塑

Industry Rating - The industry rating is Buy, consistent with the previous rating [1] Core Views - The wind power industry is at a turning point, with wind turbine and tower & foundation segments expected to see a profit inflection first [2] - The profit distribution in the wind power industry is concentrated in the wind turbine and cable segments, with submarine cable leaders showing excess profits [2] - In 2024, the top three companies by non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company were Goldwind (1.777 billion CNY), Orient Cable (793 million CNY), and Sany Renewable Energy (612 million CNY) [2] - The gross profit margin of leading companies in some segments began to stabilize or even increase in Q3 2024, driven by cost advantages [2] - The debt repayment capacity of the forging and casting segment improved, while other segments increased leverage to alleviate funding pressure [2] Performance Growth - The wind power industry's revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2024 showed signs of recovery, with the number of companies experiencing negative revenue growth decreasing from 35 in 2023 to 24 in 2024 [25] - The wind turbine segment accounted for 31.49% of the total industry revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, maintaining stability [25] - The cable segment (including fiber optic cables) accounted for 37.03% of the total industry profit in the first three quarters of 2024, up from 33.32% in 2023 [27] Profitability - The gross profit margin of leading companies in the tower & foundation segment, such as Dajin Heavy Industry and Titan Wind Energy, began to stabilize or increase in Q3 2024 [33] - The overall ROE of the wind power industry remained stable, with most segments experiencing slight declines [35] - The forging and casting segment showed low capital expenditure characteristics, and leading companies with high quick ratios are expected to benefit from industry demand recovery [2] Debt Repayment Capacity - The forging and casting segment reduced leverage in the first three quarters of 2024, with companies like Jinlei Shares and Riyue Shares decreasing their debt-to-asset ratios [39] - Other segments, such as wind turbines and cables, increased leverage to alleviate short-term funding pressure [39] Operational Efficiency - The asset turnover rate of the tower & foundation and submarine cable segments declined in the first three quarters of 2024 due to low offshore wind project activity [44] - The inventory turnover rate of the tower & foundation segment decreased, while other segments remained relatively stable [44] - 58% of the sample companies experienced a decline in accounts receivable turnover, reflecting extended payment cycles across the industry [44] Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Goldwind, Sany Renewable Energy, and Mingyang Smart Energy in the wind turbine segment [2] - In the tower & foundation segment, companies like Dajin Heavy Industry and Titan Wind Energy are recommended [2] - For the submarine cable segment, Orient Cable, Zhongtian Technology, and Hengtong Optic-Electric are highlighted [2] - In the forging and casting segment, Jinlei Shares and Riyue Shares are expected to benefit from industry recovery [2]