国际贸易数据点评（2024.10）：美国大选、欧盟关税落地，反弹之后出口如何展望？

Export Performance - In October, exports rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.7%, an increase of 10.3 percentage points from September, marking the highest growth since August 2022[1] - The main drivers for this growth included the recovery of mid-range product exports post-typhoon, a low base effect for semiconductor products, and a resurgence in U.S. consumer demand[1] - However, the export of automobiles and parts has begun to decline due to the confirmed implementation of EU tariffs[1] Import Trends - October imports continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, down 2.6 percentage points from September, reaching the second-lowest level in eight months[1] - The drop in imports was primarily driven by a significant decline in energy commodity imports, particularly crude oil, which saw a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%[1] - The sluggish recovery in domestic demand has also affected the import of consumer and capital goods, with year-on-year declines of 14.8% and 4.3%, respectively[1] Future Outlook - The trade environment is expected to become more complex, particularly with the EU's tariffs on new energy vehicles and the potential for increased tariffs under a second Trump administration[1] - The first phase of export pressure (Q4 2024 to Q1 2025) will likely stem from the immediate impact of EU tariffs on key products like automobiles and batteries, potentially leading to a steeper decline in exports[1] - The second phase (Q2 2025 and beyond) may see broader tariff implementations that could raise prices globally, leading to reduced demand for Chinese exports[1] Fiscal Policy Expectations - There are strong expectations for a fiscal expansion in 2025, with a projected budget deficit rate of around 4.2% to support sustainable consumer subsidies[1] - The strategy of "first debt resolution, then reserve accumulation, and finally expansion" is anticipated to be implemented to alleviate local debt issues and stabilize the RMB exchange rate[1] Risk Factors - There is a risk that external conditions may worsen more rapidly than expected, leading to a faster-than-anticipated decline in external demand[1]