Hangcha (603298) 申万宏源·2024-11-07 14:22Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Hangcha Group with a "Buy" rating, citing its leadership in the domestic forklift market and its strategic focus on electrification and internationalization [5][7] Core Views - Hangcha Group is a leading domestic forklift manufacturer with steady growth in revenue and net profit, driven by the industry's expansion and its own electrification and internationalization efforts [5] - The forklift market is poised for growth due to domestic and international demand, with electrification and globalization being key trends [5] - The company is actively pursuing electrification and internationalization strategies, with significant growth in overseas revenue [5] Company Overview - Hangcha Group, established in 1956, transitioned from machine tool manufacturing to forklift production and has maintained its position as the 8th largest forklift manufacturer globally since 2017 [19] - The company's revenue grew from 5.57 billion yuan in 2013 to 16.27 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 11.32%, while net profit grew from 304 million yuan to 1.72 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 18.92% [5][24] Market Analysis - The global forklift market is expected to grow, with China being a significant consumer market, accounting for 36% of global sales in 2023 [34] - The domestic forklift market is mature, but growth opportunities exist in electrification and internationalization, with the electric forklift penetration rate in China at 67.87% in 2023, lower than the global average of 72.23% [55] Electrification and Internationalization - Hangcha Group is focusing on electrification, with its electric forklift sales growing rapidly, and has established a strong presence in international markets, with overseas revenue increasing from 1.74 billion yuan in 2020 to 6.54 billion yuan in 2023, a CAGR of over 50% [5][56] - The company has a comprehensive global sales network, with over 70 direct sales companies and 600 authorized dealers, serving customers in more than 200 countries and regions [5] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Hangcha Group's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 1.995 billion yuan, 2.285 billion yuan, and 2.594 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12x, 10x, and 9x [5][7] - The company's revenue is expected to grow steadily, with domestic and international sales contributing to the overall growth, with domestic sales projected to grow at 5% annually and international sales at 15% annually [7][8] Competitive Landscape - The global forklift market is highly concentrated, with the top five manufacturers accounting for over 50% of sales, and Hangcha Group is among the top ten globally [36] - In China, the forklift market is dominated by Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group, with a combined market share of 67.7% in 2023 [43] Technological Advancements - Hangcha Group is investing heavily in R&D, with a focus on electrification and intelligent logistics, and has developed a wide range of products, including electric forklifts, AGVs, and other intelligent logistics solutions [21][74] - The company's R&D expenses have increased from 3.56% of revenue in 2017 to 4.88% in 2024H1, with a significant number of patents granted in 2023 [74]