Croatia Systematic Country Diagnostic Update

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Croatia is a high-income country with solid macroeconomic fundamentals, experiencing accelerated income convergence with the EU, with GDP per capita increasing from 64.8% of the EU27 average in 2018 to 76% in 2023 [14][43] - Economic growth averaged 3.5% from 2018 to 2023, supported by strong export performance and fiscal measures post-COVID-19 [14][39] - The country faces structural challenges, including demographic decline, low labor productivity, and public sector inefficiencies, which could hinder long-term growth [17][19][20] Summary by Sections 1. Updated Country Context - Croatia has made significant progress in economic growth and inclusion since joining the EU in 2013, with a large services sector where tourism accounts for nearly 25% of GDP [32][33] - The economy has shifted from domestic demand-driven growth to export-led growth, with exports rising from 39% of GDP in 2012 to 54% in 2023 [16][35] 2. Constraints to Sustainable Growth - Public sector inefficiencies and weak institutional capacity hinder service delivery and governance, with Croatia lagging behind the EU average in regulatory quality and corruption control [19][20] - Demographic challenges, including a declining population and low labor market participation, particularly among marginalized groups, pose significant risks to labor supply [20][21] - The education system's shortcomings contribute to a low skills base, affecting long-term productivity and growth potential [21][23] 3. Priorities for Improvement - Effective public service delivery is crucial, requiring improvements in public administration and the justice sector [26][27] - Enhancing human capital and social protection is necessary to increase labor force participation and improve educational outcomes [28] - Promoting better-paid jobs through higher productivity involves supporting private sector innovation and improving the business environment [29] - Environmental sustainability and a green transition are essential for long-term growth, necessitating investments in renewable energy and waste management [30][31]