传播文化业行业专题研究：TikTok：商业化拐点或在即，万亿市场可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - Douyin has become the largest short video platform in China with a Monthly Active User (MAU) of 780 million, leading in advertising and e-commerce revenue [5][7] - TikTok is projected to see significant growth, with MAU expected to reach between 3.01 to 3.81 billion by 2029, and revenue forecasted to reach between $268.2 to $453.4 billion [5][35] - The report highlights four key investment opportunities related to TikTok's growth: advertising agencies, e-commerce platforms, overseas content companies, and official tools or content suppliers [5] Summary by Sections Douyin's Development - Douyin has expanded its commercial landscape significantly, achieving over 550 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, with advertising revenue reaching 400 billion yuan, making it the largest in the industry [4][8] - The platform's e-commerce Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) was approximately 2.7 trillion yuan in 2023, nearly doubling year-on-year [5][8] TikTok's Growth - TikTok has reached 1.58 billion MAU as of April 2024, making it the fifth largest social application globally, with a revenue of approximately $18 billion in 2023 [5][35] - The platform's advertising revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of $117.7 to $222.4 billion by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45% to 63% [5][35] Commercialization Strategies - Douyin's commercialization includes four main areas: advertising, e-commerce, gaming, and local services, with advertising being the most mature and revenue-generating segment [18][21] - The report notes that Douyin's e-commerce strategy has evolved, with GMV projected to reach 4 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a nearly 50% increase from 2023 [29][30] Future Catalysts - Key catalysts for growth include upcoming major sales events like Black Friday in November 2024 and the potential lifting of the TikTok ban in the U.S. by January 2025 [5]