潍柴动力：关于潍柴的市场短期关切及长期空间

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that Weichai Power's stock price has experienced a correction since April due to multiple factors, but the risk has gradually been released, and the focus should shift to future changes [2] - The report discusses short-term and medium-term heavy-duty truck demand, the decline of gas-powered vehicles, and the trend of electrification [2] - The report compares Weichai Power's long-term potential with Cummins, emphasizing diversification, globalization, and market share expansion [2] Short-Term and Medium-Term Heavy-Duty Truck Demand - Short-term demand is weak domestically but strong in exports, with a policy-driven replacement cycle expected to boost demand from October [2] - Medium-term demand is expected to recover from 2025 due to government stimulus policies and the replacement cycle of trucks sold between 2017-2021 [2] - The market has moved away from gas-powered vehicles, and electric heavy-duty trucks are rapidly penetrating short-distance scenarios, but long-distance penetration faces challenges [2] Long-Term Potential: Comparison with Cummins - Cummins achieved significant growth despite a stagnant truck market by focusing on emission upgrades, diversification, technological advantages, and globalization [2] - Weichai Power is expected to benefit from emission regulation upgrades, diversification into engines, transmissions, and axles, and globalization through vertical integration [2] - Weichai Power is also exploring synergies in the "whole vehicle" sector, including acquisitions like Lovol and Kion, which have broad business potential [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The heavy-duty truck industry is expected to see a turning point in Q4 2024, with Weichai Power benefiting as a leading player [3] - The report forecasts Weichai Power's net profit for 2024-2026 to be RMB 11.53 billion, RMB 12.70 billion, and RMB 14.30 billion, respectively, with a target price of RMB 18.92 based on a 13x PE ratio for 2025 [3] Market Trends and Industry Analysis - The report provides detailed analysis of heavy-duty truck sales trends, including seasonal patterns and the impact of gas-powered vehicles [22][23] - The replacement demand for heavy-duty trucks is expected to drive a new cycle of growth, with sales projected to exceed 1.1 million units by 2026 [36] - The report also discusses the impact of policy changes, such as the upcoming National VII emission standards, which are expected to boost engine and after-treatment system ASPs [63][64] Diversification and Globalization - Weichai Power's diversification strategy includes expanding into engines, transmissions, and axles, as well as exploring synergies in the "whole vehicle" sector [2][75] - The company's globalization efforts are expected to drive cross-border development of engines and components [2] - Weichai Power's overseas business layout and revenue split forecasts are also discussed, highlighting the company's efforts to expand its global presence [47][48]