运输设备2024年三季报综述：轨交景气度高位，车辆和机电设备有望持续受益

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for China CRRC (601766.SH), Times Electric (688187.SH), Times New Materials (600458.SH), and other selected stocks [1][2][6]. Core Views - The rail transit industry is experiencing a high level of prosperity, with vehicle and electromechanical equipment expected to continue benefiting from increasing passenger and freight transport demand [6][24]. - The overall net profit of the rail transit industry chain decreased by approximately 12% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with a more significant decline of about 16% in Q3 2024. However, excluding the impact of upstream project surveying, design, and engineering construction, the net profit of the rail transit industry chain increased by 2.7% and 6.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters and Q3 2024, respectively [24][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Q3 2024 Performance of Rail Transit Industry Chain - Most sub-sectors in the rail transit industry chain showed year-on-year improvement in performance, with significant growth in vehicle manufacturing (+12% revenue, +13% net profit) and electromechanical equipment (+7% revenue, +10% net profit) [5][25]. - The overall net profit of the rail transit industry chain decreased by 16% in Q3 2024, with upstream project surveying, design, and engineering construction experiencing a decline of 24% [24][26]. 2. Growing Demand for Passenger and Freight Transport - The demand for passenger and freight transport is continuously increasing, leading to improved operational performance for the China National Railway Group. The asset-liability ratio is further reduced, indicating a positive outlook for the railway equipment industry, particularly for rail transit vehicles [6][24]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the growth sustainability of vehicles and electromechanical equipment, highlighting the expected continued demand for new train sets and the high growth potential of advanced maintenance services for train sets [6][7][24]. - Key recommended stocks include China CRRC (601766.SH), Times Electric (688187.SH), Times New Materials (600458.SH), and others [1][2][6]. 4. Financial Performance Insights - In the first three quarters of 2024, the revenue from the rail equipment business of China CRRC reached 717.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.69%, contributing to 47% of total revenue [30]. - The revenue from train sets, particularly EMUs, showed a significant increase of 87.34% year-on-year, indicating strong market demand [31].