煤炭进口数据拆解：9月进口量增长，分煤种结构性分化

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market-A" for the coal industry [1]. Core Insights - The coal import data for January to September 2024 shows a year-on-year increase of 12%, with September's imports rising by 12.93% year-on-year and 3.82% month-on-month. The total coal and lignite imports reached 389 million tons [1][12]. - The average import price for coal in January to September 2024 was recorded at $99 per ton, a decrease of 11.34% compared to the previous year [1][24]. - The report highlights a structural differentiation in coal types, with coking coal's proportion increasing while the share of anthracite coal decreased. The demand for thermal coal and lignite has returned to levels seen in 2019 and 2020 [1][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Import Volume Data Breakdown - The total coal and lignite imports from January to September 2024 were 389 million tons, up 12% year-on-year. In September alone, imports reached 47.59 million tons, marking a 12.93% increase year-on-year and a 3.82% increase month-on-month [12][1]. - The report details the import volumes of various coal types, noting that thermal coal imports increased by 12% year-on-year, while coking coal imports rose by 22.1% [12][37]. 2. Coal Import Price Data Breakdown - The average import price for coal in January to September 2024 was $99 per ton, down 11.34% from the previous year. In September, the price was $91 per ton, reflecting a 3.53% year-on-year decrease [24][25]. - The report indicates that the average price for thermal coal was $94 per ton, a 14.16% decrease year-on-year, while coking coal averaged $157 per ton, down 6.73% from the previous year [26][27]. 3. Commentary and Investment Recommendations - The coal import data for January to September 2024 aligns with expectations, with September showing a month-on-month increase. The report suggests that the overall coal supply will remain structurally constrained, with limited supply growth anticipated in the fourth quarter [37][38]. - The report recommends focusing on stable high-dividend stocks and low price-to-book ratio targets, as well as coking coal stocks that may benefit from anticipated demand increases due to fiscal and real estate policies [38][39].