AI算力产业链跟踪报告（二十五）：超微电脑FY25Q1业绩和Q2指引低于预期，持续关注公司财务合规风险

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to market benchmarks [2]. Core Insights - The company, Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O), reported FY25Q1 results and FY25Q2 guidance that fell short of expectations, with FY25Q1 revenue estimated at $5.9-6.0 billion, below Bloomberg consensus of $6.428 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 178.34%-183.06% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11.15%-13.03% [1]. - The gross margin for FY25Q1 was reported at 13.3%, a year-over-year decline of 3.7 percentage points but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.0 percentage points. Non-GAAP EPS was projected at $0.75-$0.76, slightly above Bloomberg consensus of $0.743 [1]. - For FY25Q2, the company expects revenue of $5.5-6.1 billion, again below Bloomberg consensus of $6.627 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 50.07%-66.44% and a forecasted gross margin decline of 1.0 percentage point [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY25Q1 revenue was $5.9-6.0 billion, below expectations, with a year-over-year increase of 178.34%-183.06% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11.15%-13.03% [1]. - Gross margin for FY25Q1 was 13.3%, down 3.7 percentage points year-over-year but up 2.0 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1]. - Non-GAAP EPS for FY25Q1 was $0.75-$0.76, exceeding expectations [1]. Guidance - FY25Q2 revenue guidance is $5.5-6.1 billion, below expectations, with a year-over-year increase of 50.07%-66.44% [1]. - Expected gross margin for FY25Q2 is projected to decline by 1.0 percentage point [1]. - Non-GAAP EPS for FY25Q2 is forecasted at $0.56-$0.65, below consensus [1]. Compliance and Governance - An independent special committee found no evidence of fraud or misconduct by management, but ongoing financial compliance risks remain a concern due to previous accounting issues and investigations [1]. - The company must resubmit its annual report or restore compliance by November 16 to meet NASDAQ requirements [1]. Technological Developments - The company is advancing its DLC liquid cooling technology, with significant deployments in AI infrastructure, including the largest global DLC AI supercluster with 100,000 NVIDIA GPUs [1]. - A modular data center construction solution (DCBBS) is expected to significantly reduce construction time from approximately two years to several months [1]. - A new factory in Malaysia is anticipated to begin production in FY25Q2, enhancing production capacity and supply chain efficiency [1].