美联储系列十三：美联储降息25BP，未来节奏生变

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis points (BP) interest rate cut on November 8, 2024, indicating a shift in future rate cut expectations[4] - The Fed removed the phrase expressing greater confidence in inflation returning to 2%, suggesting a lack of further progress towards this target[4] - Despite falling oil and used car prices, rent and labor costs have not shown signs of further decline, which may drive core inflation upward[4] Economic Outlook - Following the November elections, Donald Trump won with a significant margin, gaining control of both the House and Senate, which may reduce policy implementation resistance[4] - The Fed is expected to assess the impact of these political changes on the economy and markets in upcoming meetings[4] Market Liquidity - The Fed continues its balance sheet reduction policy, with long-term U.S. Treasury yields rising nearly 60 BP since October[5] - The ONRRP balance decreased by $260 billion, indicating tightening liquidity conditions[5] - Emerging market central banks are expected to raise rates more quickly, while developed economies like the UK may lower rates, increasing expectations for a stronger dollar[5] Risks - There are risks associated with short-term economic data volatility and rapid liquidity tightening[7] - The probability of a rate cut in December is estimated at 58%, with a potential cut space reduced to 15 BP[8]