11月美联储议息会议传递的信号：大选结果短期对联储影响有限

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points (BP) aligns with market expectations, lowering the federal funds target rate to a range of 4.50%-4.75%[3] - The Fed's balance sheet reduction remains at $25 billion for Treasury securities and $35 billion for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) monthly[3] - Powell emphasized that the election results will have a limited short-term impact on the Fed's decision-making, indicating a wait-and-see approach regarding policy implementation[3] Group 2: Economic Projections - The expectation is for two rate cuts in 2025, with a gradual reduction of 25 BP each quarter in the first half, contingent on inflation trends in the second half[5] - Trump's policies, including tax cuts and increased tariffs, may elevate inflation and interest rate expectations, potentially affecting the Fed's future decisions[5] - The anticipated inflationary pressures could lead to a pause in rate cuts if inflationary pressures intensify later in 2025[5] Group 3: Market Implications - The potential for increased inflation under Trump's administration may lead to a wider fluctuation in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, projected to range between 4%-5%[8] - Trump's policies are expected to favor U.S. equities, particularly benefiting the stock market despite potential negative impacts from tariffs on specific sectors[8] - The dollar index may face upward pressure if inflation expectations rise, complicating Trump's goal of a weaker dollar[8]