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安道麦A：公司动态研究：三季度销量毛利率同比提升，差异化产品助力公司逆境崛起
000553ADAMA(000553) 国海证券·2024-11-08 05:54

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [1] Core Views - The company is a global leader in crop protection, with a slight increase in sales volume in Q3 2024, driven by differentiated products and improved gross margins [3] - Despite a 10% YoY decline in Q3 2024 sales to 929million,thecompany′sgrossmarginimprovedto20.25929 million, the company's gross margin improved to 20.25%, up 2.30 pct YoY, due to lower market pricing for inventory and a focus on high-margin products [3][6] - North America saw a 19% YoY increase in Q3 2024 sales to 158 million, driven by favorable weather conditions and a focus on high-margin products [5] - The company's "Forward Plan" aims to enhance business quality and achieve profit and cash flow targets from 2024 to 2026, with early results showing increased sales of high-margin products and new product registrations [7] Regional Performance - North America: Q3 2024 sales increased 19% YoY to 158million,withtotalsalesforthefirstthreequartersof2024reaching158 million, with total sales for the first three quarters of 2024 reaching 572 million, up 1% YoY [5] - Europe, Africa, and Middle East (EAME): Q3 2024 sales declined 14% YoY to 203millionduetopoorweatherconditionsandintensecompetition[6]−LatinAmerica:Q32024salesdropped18203 million due to poor weather conditions and intense competition [6] - Latin America: Q3 2024 sales dropped 18% YoY to 287 million, impacted by adverse weather and pricing pressures [6] - Asia-Pacific: Q3 2024 sales fell 11% YoY to 282million,drivenbyweakcustomerdemand,extremeweather,andmarketpricingpressures[6]FinancialMetrics−Q32024operatingcashflowincreasedby282 million, driven by weak customer demand, extreme weather, and market pricing pressures [6] Financial Metrics - Q3 2024 operating cash flow increased by 77 million YoY to 159million,drivenbystrictprocurementmanagementandimprovedsupplierterms[4]−Investmentcashflowdecreasedby159 million, driven by strict procurement management and improved supplier terms [4] - Investment cash flow decreased by 62 million YoY to 7million,reflectingprioritizedcapitalexpendituresandproductlineoptimization[4]−Thecompany′stotalmarketcapitalizationis7 million, reflecting prioritized capital expenditures and product line optimization [4] - The company's total market capitalization is 16.87 billion, with a current stock price of ¥7.24 and a 52-week price range of ¥4.10-9.02 [2] Product Development - The company launched several new differentiated products in Q3 2024, including Bazak insecticide and Upturn herbicide in India, and Matos, the first formulation based on spirotetramat, in South Korea [7] - Additional registrations for prothioconazole-based products were secured in multiple countries, including Germany, Italy, and the US [7] Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected at ¥29.5 billion, ¥30.8 billion, and ¥32.5 billion, respectively, with net profits of -¥1.9 billion, ¥147 million, and ¥498 million [8] - The 2025-2026 P/E ratios are estimated at 115x and 34x, respectively, reflecting expected recovery in the pesticide industry and market share growth [8] Valuation Metrics - 2024-2026 ROE is forecasted at -10%, 1%, and 2%, with gross margins improving from 22% in 2024 to 26% in 2026 [11] - The company's P/B ratio is expected to remain stable at 0.85 in 2025 and 0.83 in 2026, while the P/S ratio is projected to decline from 0.57 in 2024 to 0.52 in 2026 [11]