重庆啤酒：需求疲软结构升级放缓，期待量价修复

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to Chongqing Beer, with a target price of 62.04 CNY, compared to the last closing price of 58.85 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that Chongqing Beer is experiencing weak demand and a slowdown in structural upgrades, with expectations for volume and price recovery [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.063 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.332 billion CNY, a decrease of 0.9% [1]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 4.202 billion CNY, down 7.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 431 million CNY, down 10.1% year-on-year [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Chongqing Beer are as follows: 2023A: 14,815 million CNY, 2024E: 14,794 million CNY, 2025E: 15,141 million CNY, and 2026E: 15,478 million CNY, with growth rates of 5.53%, -0.14%, 2.35%, and 2.23% respectively [2]. - The net profit forecasts are: 2023A: 1,337 million CNY, 2024E: 1,321 million CNY, 2025E: 1,366 million CNY, and 2026E: 1,423 million CNY, with growth rates of 5.78%, -1.20%, 3.46%, and 4.14% respectively [2]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.76 CNY in 2023, 2.73 CNY in 2024, 2.82 CNY in 2025, and 2.94 CNY in 2026 [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin is expected to be 50.48% in 2022, decreasing to 49.15% in 2023, and projected to recover to 50.33% by 2026 [3]. - The net profit margin is projected to be 9.00% in 2023, slightly increasing to 9.19% by 2026 [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 61.45% in 2022 to 55.36% in 2026 [3]. Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is expected to be 3,753 million CNY in 2022, decreasing to 3,097 million CNY in 2023, with a recovery to 3,572 million CNY in 2024 [3]. - The cash increase is projected to be 1,231 million CNY in 2022, with a decrease to -697 million CNY in 2023, and a recovery to 1,542 million CNY in 2024 [3].