海外观察：2024年11月美国FOMC会议：短期延续降息路径，长期隐含通胀担忧

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25bps to a target range of 4.50%-4.75% on November 7, 2024, aligning with market expectations[2] - The removal of key inflation language in the statement suggests uncertainty regarding future inflation trends, despite Powell's reassurance of confidence in achieving a 2% inflation rate[3] - The current economic conditions indicate a soft landing for the U.S. economy, supported by personal consumption and equipment investment, with Q3 GDP showing only a slight decline[3] Group 2: Political and Economic Outlook - The outcome of the upcoming elections is not expected to impact the short-term rate cut path, but uncertainty may arise in 2025 due to potential inflationary policies from the incoming administration[3] - Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating that any political pressures would have limited immediate effects on monetary policy[4] - Asset prices showed minimal volatility during the meeting, with slight declines in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, while gold and U.S. equities experienced gains[4] Group 3: Risk Factors - Key risks include inflation uncertainty and global economic and geopolitical risks, which could complicate future monetary policy decisions[4]