Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.5%-4.75%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The decision to cut rates was unanimous, contrasting with a previous meeting where one member opposed a larger cut[16] - The Fed continues to reduce its balance sheet as planned, which is also in line with market expectations[16] Economic Outlook - The Fed maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the economy, stating that risks to employment and inflation are roughly balanced[16] - Recent statements indicate a more cautious stance on inflation, removing previous confidence in inflation returning to 2% sustainably[16] - Powell emphasized that the pace of rate cuts is less important than gradually moving towards a neutral monetary policy stance[2] Market Reactions - Following the rate decision, market expectations for a December rate cut slightly adjusted, with a 67.8% probability for a 25 basis point cut[19] - U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly after the meeting, despite a hawkish tone, indicating a market correction from previous expectations[19] - The S&P 500 forward P/E ratio was reported at 24.9x as of November 7, indicating potential overvaluation concerns[29] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include slower-than-expected declines in U.S. inflation, rising commodity prices, and hawkish Fed statements[30] - The market is advised to remain cautious about high valuations and concentration in the stock market, particularly in the context of potential economic downturns[24]
11月FOMC会议点评:从特朗普交易向基本面回归
Huafu Securities·2024-11-08 06:02