10月外贸数据点评：10 月“抢出口”了吗？

Trade Data Summary - In October 2024, China's exports reached $309.06 billion, while imports were $213.34 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $95.72 billion, the second highest this year[1] - Year-on-year, exports increased by 12.7%, and imports decreased by 2.3%, showing significant changes from September's figures of +10.3 percentage points and -2.6 percentage points respectively[1] - The combined export growth for September and October was 7.4%, lower than August's 8.7% but higher than the year-to-date average of 5.1%[1] Country-Specific Performance - Exports to ASEAN, EU, and the US saw year-on-year increases of 15.8%, 12.7%, and 8.1% respectively, contributing nearly half of the total export growth of 12.7%[1] - The contribution from these three major trading partners improved by 4.1 percentage points compared to September[1] - Exports to emerging markets, including Russia, Latin America, and Africa, also improved, contributing an additional 2.7 percentage points to total export growth[1] Product-Level Insights - Most key industries, except for the automotive sector, saw an increase in year-on-year export growth in October[1] - The automotive sector contributed 0.5 percentage points to total export growth, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from September[1] - Textile and production equipment exports showed significant improvement, marking their highest growth rates of the year in October[1] Future Outlook and Risks - The trend of weakening exports is expected to continue, with three key variables to monitor: automotive export performance, resilience of demand from emerging economies, and the impact of US-China trade relations post-election[1] - The automotive sector may face further declines due to tariff pressures, particularly with the EU's recent imposition of anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles[1] - Risks include unexpected changes in overseas economic conditions, geopolitical conflicts, and shifts in international policies[1]