2024年10月外汇储备、黄金储备数据解读

Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of October 2024, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,261.05 billion, a decrease of $55.32 billion from the previous month[1] - The foreign reserves experienced a decline of 1.7% month-on-month, ending a three-month period of significant increases[1] - The primary reason for the decline was a 3.1% rise in the US dollar index, which led to a decrease in the valuation of non-dollar assets within China's reserves, estimated to be around $40 billion[1] Economic and Market Conditions - Despite a recent depreciation of the RMB against the USD, the CFETS index indicates a stable trend in the RMB exchange rate, suggesting no immediate need for intervention from the central bank[2] - China's foreign reserves are currently at a moderately sufficient level of approximately $3 trillion, expected to remain stable in the near term due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and limited upside for the dollar index[2] - Strong export performance and new growth drivers in cross-border e-commerce are contributing to the stability of foreign reserves[2] Gold Reserves - China's official gold reserves have remained unchanged since May, currently at 72.8 million ounces, as the central bank adjusts its purchasing pace to manage costs amid high gold prices[3] - The central bank is unlikely to resume significant gold purchases in the short term, as gold prices are expected to remain above $2,000 per ounce[3] - Future gold accumulation by the central bank is still a strategic direction aimed at optimizing international reserve structure and promoting RMB internationalization[3]