国内观察：2024年10月进出口数据——如何理解出口增速的超预期回升

Export Data - In October 2024, exports increased by 12.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in the previous month[2] - Imports decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, compared to a 0.3% increase previously[2] - The trade surplus reached $95.719 billion, expanding from the previous value[2] Export Trends - The rise in October's export growth was attributed to the fading impact of typhoons and a lower base effect from last year[2] - For the combined September-October period, export growth was 7.4%, slightly below the mid-range level of 5-8 months[2] - Exports to the US, EU, and Japan saw increases of 5.9%, 11.4%, and 13.9% respectively in October[2] Import Insights - October's total import value was $213.34 billion, marking a significant decline compared to previous months[2] - The manufacturing PMI new orders index rose to 50.1%, indicating signs of improvement in domestic demand[2] - The decline in imports was influenced by the National Day holiday and a high base from the previous year[2] Product Performance - Exports of mechanical and high-tech products accelerated, with aluminum and steel showing strong performance at 31.2% and 24.4% growth respectively[2] - Agricultural products and high-tech products rebounded to 10.94% and 9.08% growth, respectively[2] - Imports of aircraft over 2 tons surged by 109.9%, while imports of integrated circuits grew by 10.3%[9]