宏观研究报告：特朗普当选的宏观与市场影响

Economic Policies - Trump's core economic promise includes significant tax cuts aimed at stimulating economic growth and job creation, with potential reductions totaling trillions of dollars[6] - Proposed tariffs of 10-20% on most foreign goods and 60% on all Chinese goods to protect domestic industries, which may lead to increased inflation and higher consumer prices[7] - Plans to implement the largest illegal immigration deportation program in U.S. history, tightening legal immigration channels[8] Market Impacts - U.S. stock markets are expected to benefit from tax cuts and lower interest rates, which could enhance corporate earnings and improve liquidity conditions[9] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields may face upward pressure due to inflationary expectations driven by tariffs and reduced labor supply[11] - Cryptocurrency is likely to gain favor as Trump expresses support, enhancing its monetary attributes amid global tensions[11] International Relations - Trump's administration plans to adjust relationships with allies to assert U.S. interests more aggressively in global affairs, including a commitment to end the Russia-Ukraine war[8] - The potential for increased tariffs on China could negatively impact China's export growth, prompting a need for proactive monetary and fiscal policies in response[12] Risk Factors - Geopolitical conflicts, global economic downturns, and macroeconomic policies falling short of expectations pose significant risks to market stability[5]