中泰证券：【中泰研究|晨会聚焦】固收肖雨：美国大选后，关注什么？-20241108

Core Insights - The report discusses the implications of the recent U.S. presidential election, where Trump is expected to take office, and the potential market impacts of this outcome [2] - It highlights the likelihood of a Republican-controlled Congress, which may facilitate Trump's policy implementation [2] - The report emphasizes Trump's aggressive stance on economic, industrial, and foreign policies compared to his opponent [2] Economic Policy - Trump's economic policies are expected to focus on tax cuts to stimulate the economy, with a preference for domestic tax reductions and increased tariffs on foreign goods [2] - Both candidates support tax cuts, but Trump's approach is more aggressive regarding tariffs and immigration policies [2] Industrial Policy - The report outlines Trump's inclination towards traditional energy sources and the repatriation of manufacturing jobs, contrasting with Harris's focus on modern manufacturing [2] - Both parties aim to maintain U.S. technological superiority, but their methods differ significantly [2] Trade and Foreign Policy - The report notes that Trump's administration is likely to maintain high tariff rates on China, with a strong possibility of implementing these tariffs [2] - The potential for legislative changes regarding China's most-favored-nation status is highlighted as a significant concern [2] Market Expectations - The report suggests that the market should prepare for unexpected outcomes following the election, particularly regarding Trump's potential for more radical policies due to increased control over his cabinet [2] - It indicates that the market has already begun to react to Trump's anticipated victory, with movements in the dollar, U.S. stocks, and bond yields observed since late September [2] Domestic Policy Context - The report emphasizes that domestic policy expectations remain a primary driver of market performance, with Trump's victory not directly altering this trajectory [2] - It mentions the importance of upcoming policy announcements and decisions from the Chinese government as critical indicators for market sentiment [2]