造纸轻工行业季报：轻工出口及二轮车收入高增，细分子版块分化明显

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the paper and light industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The total market capitalization of the paper and light industry accounts for 0.88% of the total A-share market capitalization, with a total market value of 807.545 billion yuan as of November 1, 2024 [2][6] - The industry is experiencing short-term pressure in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 1% and a net profit decline of 28% [7][15] - The paper sector shows a significant decline in both revenue and net profit in Q3 2024, while the two-wheeler sector demonstrates strong growth [9][15] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The paper and light industry consists of 122 representative stocks, with a total market value of 807.545 billion yuan, representing 0.88% of the total A-share market [2][6] 2. Q3 2024 Financial Performance - Overall revenue for the paper and light industry in Q3 2024 is 1,602 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year, while the first three quarters show a 2% increase [10][11] - The paper sector's revenue in Q3 2024 decreased by 4% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 76% [7][15] - The packaging and printing sector's revenue increased by 1% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 10% [8][15] - The furniture and home sector saw a 15% decline in revenue and a 26% decline in net profit in Q3 2024 [8][15] - The light industry export sector experienced a 26% revenue growth in Q3 2024, but net profit decreased by 19% [9][15] - The two-wheeler sector's revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 22% [9][15] 3. Investment Strategies - For the paper sector, domestic demand is expected to improve, and prices may rebound, with a focus on companies with high integration of forestry, pulp, and paper [27] - In packaging and printing, recovery in exports and domestic demand is anticipated, leading to revenue and profit growth [27] - The furniture and home sector faces external pressures, but policies supporting upgrades may benefit leading companies [28] - The light industry export sector is expected to gain market share due to competitive advantages of leading firms [29] - The two-wheeler sector is benefiting from regulatory support, with a focus on leading companies [30] - The personal care sector is expected to maintain stable growth due to strong consumer demand [30]