批零行业2024三季报总结：需求磨底业绩承压，重视4Q边际变化

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need to focus on marginal changes in the fourth quarter, as retail terminal demand may recover, but short-term performance still faces pressure. It suggests paying attention to sub-sectors with significant marginal changes, particularly leading companies [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Supermarkets - Short-term operations are under pressure, with supermarkets entering a new round of adjustment and transformation. The consumption environment remains weak, leading to a decline in foot traffic and greater profit margin reductions [3]. - For the department store sector, total revenue in Q3 2024 decreased by 8.4% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of only 0.1%, down 1.0 percentage points [13]. - Supermarkets experienced a revenue decline of 11.6% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of -3.8%, down 1.5 percentage points [15][17]. 2. Jewelry - The jewelry sector is impacted by a sharp rise in gold prices, affecting terminal sales. In Q3 2024, gold jewelry consumption was 130 tons, down 29%, while gold bar consumption was 69 tons, down 9% [19]. - The overall retail sales of gold and silver jewelry decreased by 7.6% year-on-year, with a notable decline in the months of July to September [19]. - The sector's total revenue and gross profit in Q3 2024 fell by 25.2% and 28.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a net profit margin of 3.1%, down 0.4 percentage points [21]. 3. Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty and personal care sector shows growth differentiation, with strong channels and brands solidifying competitive advantages. The medical beauty segment saw a revenue increase of 4.1% year-on-year, while the cosmetics segment faced a decline of 4.2% [4]. - The cosmetics sales on Tmall decreased by 14.3% year-on-year, while sales on Douyin increased by 28.9%, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [4]. 4. Cross-Border E-commerce - The cross-border e-commerce sector reported a significant revenue increase of 46.6% year-on-year in Q3 2024, driven by new product launches and channel expansion. However, the net profit margin decreased to 4.6%, down 2.0 percentage points [5].