TikTok：商业化拐点或在即，万亿市场可期

Investment Rating - The report assigns an Overweight rating to the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [1][2] Core Views - TikTok's Commercialization Potential: TikTok is expected to reach a revenue range of $2682-4534 billion by 2029, driven by its advertising and e-commerce growth, following the success of Douyin in China [1][3] - Douyin's Dominance in China: Douyin has achieved significant milestones, including being the top advertising platform and the fourth-largest e-commerce platform in China, with a total revenue exceeding 5500 billion yuan in 2023 [1][3] - TikTok's User Growth: TikTok's MAU is projected to surpass 3 billion by 2029, with significant growth potential in global markets, particularly outside China [3][5] Industry Overview - Douyin's Market Position: Douyin has become the largest short-video platform in China with 780 million MAU as of June 2024, surpassing Kuaishou, which has 427 million MAU [5][6] - Douyin's Revenue Streams: Douyin's revenue is diversified across advertising, e-commerce, gaming, and local services, with advertising contributing 4000 billion yuan in 2023, making it the largest internet advertising company in China [6][13] - TikTok's Global Expansion: TikTok has 158 billion MAU globally as of April 2024, making it the fifth-largest social media platform, with significant room for growth in markets outside China [3][25] Advertising and E-commerce Growth - TikTok's Advertising Revenue: TikTok's global advertising revenue reached $132 billion in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 45%-63% from 2024 to 2029, potentially reaching $1177-2224 billion by 2029 [3][48] - TikTok's E-commerce Potential: TikTok's e-commerce revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 61-74% from 2024 to 2029, potentially reaching $1506-2310 billion by 2029 [3][48] - Douyin's E-commerce Success: Douyin's e-commerce GMV reached 27 trillion yuan in 2023, nearly doubling year-over-year, positioning it as the fourth-largest e-commerce platform in China [6][22] User Growth and Market Penetration - TikTok's User Penetration: TikTok's penetration rate outside China is 416%, compared to Douyin's 632% penetration rate in China, indicating significant growth potential in global markets [3][39] - TikTok's Regional Growth: Asia is TikTok's largest market, with Indonesia, the US, and Brazil being the top three countries by user count, contributing significantly to its global user base [36][37] Investment Opportunities - Advertising-Related Companies: Companies with long-term partnerships with TikTok, such as advertising agencies, are expected to benefit from TikTok's advertising growth [3] - E-commerce and Content Providers: Companies actively building TikTok live-streaming teams and content providers are likely to benefit from TikTok's e-commerce expansion [3] - Tool and Content Suppliers: As TikTok expands its content creation and distribution, companies providing tools and content are expected to see growth opportunities [3]