零售新业态专题二：当前时点如何看超市行业？

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the supermarket industry [2] Core Views - The supermarket industry in China is highly fragmented, with regional and small-to-medium enterprises dominating the market [4] - Small and medium-sized supermarkets continue to grow, while hypermarkets are contracting due to e-commerce competition [9] - The industry is undergoing a transformation, with leading companies like Yonghui adjusting their strategies to adapt to new market conditions [32][33] Industry Landscape Evolution - In 2023, China's offline retail market reached 16.6 trillion yuan, with local small vendors accounting for 33% of the market [4] - Small and medium-sized supermarkets and specialty stores have significant market shares, with sales of 2.7 trillion yuan and 4.1 trillion yuan respectively [4] - The number of small and medium-sized supermarkets has been growing steadily, reaching 134,591 stores in 2023, while hypermarkets have been declining, with only 5,897 stores in 2023 [7][8] Industry Trends - From 2019 to 2023, the CAGR for convenience stores was 9.1%, small and medium-sized supermarkets grew at 3.7%, while hypermarkets declined by 5.4% [9] - E-commerce penetration has been increasing, but fresh produce remains less affected due to its non-standard and perishable nature [11] Industry Concentration - The top 10 companies in the hypermarket sector have a high concentration, with CR10 reaching 100% in 2023, while small and medium-sized supermarkets have a lower CR10 of 60.8% [12] - Leading hypermarket companies like Walmart and Wumart have seen their market share increase, while Yonghui and RT-Mart have experienced declines [13] Yonghui's Business Model Evolution - Yonghui has undergone multiple business model iterations, transitioning from traditional hypermarkets to smaller, more specialized stores like Yonghui Life and Yonghui Mini [23][24] - Yonghui's green-label stores, which focus on fresh produce and smaller formats, have outperformed traditional red-label stores in terms of same-store sales growth [26] Overseas Supermarket Models - ALDI, a German discount supermarket, has successfully entered the Chinese market with a focus on simplicity, low prices, and high-quality private-label products [56][57] - Sam's Club, a membership-based warehouse store, has been expanding rapidly in China, with 49 stores as of November 2024, targeting middle-class urban consumers [62] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are undergoing business model transformations, such as Yonghui Superstores, Jiajiayue, Chongqing Department Store, Hongqi Chain, and Tianhong股份 [63] - Yonghui's stock price and valuation have fluctuated significantly over the years, reflecting the challenges and opportunities in the supermarket industry [65][66]