社会服务行业3Q24业绩总结：业绩仍承压，需求待催化

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the tourism service industry [1] Core Insights - The performance in Q3 2024 shows a deceleration in revenue growth and pressure on profitability, with various segments experiencing differing recovery rates [7][19] - The report highlights that the overall recovery in the tourism sector remains uneven, with outbound travel, dining, scenic spots, hotels, and duty-free revenues showing varied year-on-year changes [7][19] Summary by Sections Overall Industry Analysis - In Q3 2024, the revenue growth rates for outbound travel, dining, scenic spots, hotels, and duty-free were 51%, 1%, -0.4%, -6%, and -22% respectively, indicating a mixed recovery compared to Q3 2019 [7][8] - Profitability remains under pressure, with net profits for outbound travel, scenic spots, dining, hotels, and duty-free showing significant declines compared to Q3 2019 [8][9] Subsector Analysis Duty-Free - Q3 2024 saw a 35.6% year-on-year decline in duty-free sales in Hainan, with shopping conversion rates decreasing to 14.8% [15][16] - The leading company in the sector, China Duty Free Group, reported a 21.5% decline in revenue for Q3 2024 [15][16] Scenic Performances - Domestic travel demand has shown strong recovery, with a 15.3% year-on-year increase in domestic travel during the first three quarters of 2024 [19] - Scenic spots like Changbai Mountain and Jiuhua Mountain reported revenue growth of 32% and 37% respectively compared to Q2 2019 [19][20] Hotels - The RevPAR for Jinjiang and Shouqi hotels decreased by 8.4% and 7.8% respectively in Q3 2024, indicating pressure on performance [22][24] - Both hotel chains continued to expand, with Jinjiang opening 446 new hotels and Shouqi opening 385 [24] Dining - The overall dining revenue growth was approximately 3.1% in Q3 2024, with major brands facing significant profit pressure [28][30] - Notable declines were observed in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, which continued to experience negative growth [28][30]