ZBOM(603801) Changjiang Securities·2024-11-08 06:27Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 3.675 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 266 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 233 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing declines of 6%, 24%, and 28% respectively. In Q3 2024, the figures were 1.463 billion yuan, 117 million yuan, and 107 million yuan, with declines of 10%, 31%, and 33% respectively. Retail performance was under pressure, while the decline in bulk sales was narrower. The focus on cost-effectiveness is expected to improve profitability in the future [4][5][6]. - The company is actively optimizing its organizational structure to support development in southern markets and is committed to executing its overseas strategy. Recent government subsidies in the home furnishing sector are expected to gradually boost demand and enhance the company's market share [5][6][7]. - The company is expected to see clear mid-term growth drivers, with significant potential for revenue growth in customized and supporting products, as well as in the southern and overseas markets. The recent acceleration of government subsidies is anticipated to uplift demand and improve market conditions [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 10%, with retail, bulk, and export channels showing year-on-year changes of -15%, -7%, and +23% respectively. The decline in product categories included kitchen cabinets, wardrobes, and wooden doors, which fell by 7%, 16%, and 7% respectively [4][5]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 3.6 percentage points in Q3, with retail, bulk, and export margins changing by -2.2, -6.2, and +3.6 percentage points respectively. The increase in sales expenses was primarily due to resource allocation not matching revenue trends [5][6]. Strategic Outlook - The company aims to enhance customer value through a comprehensive approach and is focusing on resource allocation and organizational policies to accelerate growth in southern markets. The overseas strategy prioritizes emerging markets, particularly Southeast Asia, Australia, and North America [6][7]. - The company is actively engaging with local governments to leverage subsidy programs, which are expected to yield significant results and enhance growth expectations for the coming year [6][7]. Earnings Forecast - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 and 2025 is approximately 480 million yuan and 514 million yuan respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 14x and 13x [7].