Jiangshan Oupai(SH:603208) Changjiang Securities·2024-11-08 06:27Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangshan Oupai is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 22.57 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.64 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing declines of 17% and 44% year-on-year, respectively. In Q3 2024, the figures were 8.15 billion yuan and 0.59 billion yuan, reflecting declines of 26% and 61% [3][4] - The revenue structure continues to optimize, with an increasing proportion of non-residential demand and cash-clearing business. The company is actively expanding its retail channels and promoting new models to unlock growth potential [4][5] - The company is focusing on quality strategic clients and accelerating the transformation of its marketing strategy, with new growth points gradually emerging [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 26%, with significant drops in bulk and distribution revenues, while other income saw a 32% increase. The number of distributors increased significantly, with a net addition of 15,801 distributors in H1 2024, reaching a total of 52,368 [4][5] - The gross profit margin decreased by 2.9 percentage points in Q3, attributed to the decline in revenue scale and the structural impact of lower-margin direct engineering business [6] Growth Strategy - The company is expanding its retail end and promoting the AAM and brand cooperation models, which enhance the variety of products offered and strengthen channel potential. The non-main business income saw a 52% year-on-year increase in Q2 [5][6] - The company aims to reduce reliance on new residential demand by actively exploring non-residential clients such as hotels and schools, thereby enhancing revenue resilience [6] Future Outlook - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 and 2025 is estimated at 2.48 billion yuan and 2.54 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15x and 14x [5][6]