LEAD INTELLIGENT(300450) 海通证券·2024-11-08 06:28Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue at 9.112 billion yuan, down 30.90% year-on-year, and net profit at 608 million yuan, down 73.81% year-on-year [4] - The decline in performance is attributed to delayed revenue recognition and a credit impairment loss of 204 million yuan in Q3 2024, which significantly impacted profits [4] - The company is expected to benefit from improving downstream demand and has a relatively sufficient order backlog [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 3.359 billion yuan, down 44.93% year-on-year but up 37.61% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 149 million yuan, down 86.71% year-on-year but up 241.78% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2024 were 36.42% and 6.44%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline [5] - Operating cash flow improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with a net outflow of 2.589 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [5] Business Segments - The overseas business saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 1.095 billion yuan in H1 2024, up 159.56% year-on-year, and accounting for 19.03% of total revenue [10] - The company is actively expanding its global market presence, including partnerships for sodium-ion battery technology and lithium battery production lines [10] - The company is focusing on innovation in various sectors, including lithium batteries, photovoltaic cells, and smart logistics systems, with expected revenue growth in these segments [11][12][13] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.374 billion yuan, 1.833 billion yuan, and 2.178 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.88 yuan, 1.17 yuan, and 1.39 yuan [7] - A PE valuation of 24-27 times is applied for 2024, resulting in a reasonable share price range of 21.06-23.69 yuan, with a market cap range of 330-371 billion yuan [7][14]