MELCO INT'L DEV(00200) 东吴证券国际·2024-11-08 06:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's 3Q24 performance met expectations, with daily operating expenses remaining stable [1] - Total gaming revenue in 3Q24 reached USD 1.21 billion, recovering to 72.1% of 3Q19 levels [1] - Macau property gaming revenue was USD 1.01 billion, recovering to 66.4% of 2019 levels [1] - The company's recovery pace continues to lag behind the industry, with VIP/mass market share declining by 0.4pct/0.2pct respectively in 3Q24 [1] - Measures to attract high-quality customers have shown effectiveness, with mass market betting volume increasing over 20% during the National Day Golden Week [1] Financial Performance - 3Q24 net revenue was USD 1.18 billion, recovering to 81.7% of 3Q19 levels [2] - Gaming/non-gaming net revenue reached USD 940 million/USD 230 million, recovering to 76.0%/118.0% of 3Q19 levels respectively [2] - Adjusted property EBITDA was USD 320 million, recovering to 77.1% of 2019 levels [2] - Adjusted property EBITDA margin improved by 1.3pct to 27.4% in 3Q24 [2] Operational Outlook - Daily operating expenses are expected to remain around USD 3 million [3] - The "House of Dancing Water" show is expected to reopen in 2Q25, adding USD 100,000 to daily operating costs [3] - 4Q24 capital expenditure is estimated at USD 120 million, with 2025 capex projected at USD 400 million [3] - The Sri Lanka project, with 687 rooms opened in October 2024, is expected to open its gaming area in 2H25 [3] - Dividend resumption is anticipated in 2H25, subject to debt repayment progress [3] Financial Forecasts - 2024-2026 revenue forecasts are revised to HKD 36.62/40.24/42.52 billion [3] - Adjusted property EBITDA forecasts are revised to HKD 9.47/11.34/12.46 billion for 2024-2026 [3] - Current share price implies 2024/2025/2026 EV/EBITDA multiples of 7.3/6.1/5.6x [3] - Target price is revised to HKD 6.6 [3] Market Data - Current share price: HKD 4.95 [7] - 52-week range: HKD 3.83-6.95 [7] - Market capitalization: HKD 7.51 billion [7] - Price-to-book ratio: 24.9x [7]