Applovin Corp-A：业绩大超预期，电商拓展为当前重点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AppLovin (APP US) with a target price of $213, representing a potential upside of 26% from the current price of$ 168 55 [4][6] Core Views - AppLovin s 3Q24 revenue reached $1 198 billion, up 39% YoY, surpassing market expectations by 5 9% Net profit was$ 434 million with a net margin of 36% Adjusted EBITDA was $722 million, exceeding market expectations by 12 4%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 60 2%, up 11 7pp YoY [2] - The company provided strong guidance for 4Q24, with revenue expected to be$ 1 24-1 26 billion, representing a YoY growth of 30-32%, and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $740-760 million, maintaining a 60% margin [2] - AppLovin increased its stock repurchase authorization by$ 2 billion, bringing the total remaining authorization to $2 3 billion [2] Software Platform Growth - AppLovin s Software Platform revenue in 3Q24 was$ 835 million, up 66% YoY and 17% QoQ, driven by continuous improvements in the AXON engine The adjusted EBITDA margin for this segment expanded to 78% due to operational leverage and one-time factors such as the renewal of the Google Cloud contract, PSU vesting, and favorable currency exchange rates [3] - The Apps segment revenue was $363 million, up 1% YoY, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19% The Apps segment is not a focus area for the company, and its performance is expected to remain stable [3] E-commerce Expansion - AppLovin has initiated pilot projects in the e-commerce sector, achieving promising results comparable to traditional customer acquisition channels The company is integrating resources to scale up its e-commerce business, with plans to fully launch next year This expansion is expected to significantly increase the company s total addressable market and could become a new growth driver [3] Financial Projections - The report raises 2024E/2025E revenue forecasts to$ 4 6 billion and $5 4 billion, respectively, with adjusted EBITDA margins of 57% and 61% The target price of$ 213 implies a 2025E EV/EBITDA multiple of 23 5x [4] - Key financial metrics for FY24E include revenue of $4 585 billion, operating profit of$ 1 803 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $2 626 billion [5] Valuation and Market Performance - AppLovin s current market capitalization is$ 59 618 billion, with a 52-week trading range of $35 79-$ 176 99 The stock has shown strong performance relative to the S&P 500 index [6] - The report outlines optimistic, base, and pessimistic scenarios with target prices of $269,$ 213, and $160, respectively The optimistic scenario assumes better-than-expected revenue and profit growth, accelerated expansion into new areas, and margin expansion [13]