YILI(600887) 国联证券·2024-11-08 06:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Group (600887) [1][2] Core Views - Yili Group's 2024 Q3 revenue was 290.37 billion yuan, down 6.66% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.337 billion yuan, up 8.53% YoY [1][4] - The company's profit performance is strong despite weak dairy demand, benefiting from completed channel adjustments, cost advantages, and expense control [1][6] - With stabilizing raw milk prices and demand, Yili is expected to continue improving its operations [1][6] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue: 887.33 billion yuan, down 8.61% YoY [1][4] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit: 10.868 billion yuan, up 15.87% YoY [1][4] - 2024 Q3 liquid milk revenue: 206.37 billion yuan, down 10.31% YoY but up 24.12% QoQ [4] - 2024 Q3 milk powder revenue: 68.21 billion yuan, up 6.56% YoY [4] - 2024 Q3 ice cream revenue: 10.21 billion yuan, down 16.65% YoY [4] Profitability - 2024 Q3 gross margin: 34.85%, up 2.48 pct YoY [6] - 2024 Q3 net margin: 11.45%, up 1.63 pct YoY [6] - 2024 Q3 sales expense ratio: 19.02%, up 1.09 pct YoY [6] - Gross margin-sales expense ratio difference: up 1.39 pct [6] Industry and Market Position - Yili Group is a leading dairy products company in China [1][6] - The dairy industry is facing weak demand, but Yili's channel adjustments have improved product distribution [1][4] - The company benefits from cost advantages and has strong control over expenses [1][6] Future Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 1.18855 trillion yuan, 1.21403 trillion yuan, 1.26437 trillion yuan [7] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast: 12.079 billion yuan, 11.281 billion yuan, 12.234 billion yuan [7] - 3-year CAGR for net profit: 5.47% [7] Valuation Metrics - Current price: 30.20 yuan [2] - 2024E P/E: 15.9x [7] - 2024E P/B: 3.4x [7] - 2024E EV/EBITDA: 10.2x [7]