海外札记：美债收益率反弹接近拐点

Economic Performance - The US Q3 GDP growth rate was reported at 2.8%, slightly below the expected 2.9% and previous 3.0%[3] - Personal consumption contributed significantly to GDP growth, with a 3.7% increase compared to the previous 2.8%[19] - The overall economic growth is primarily supported by domestic demand, as real estate investment and net exports have been drag factors[3] Employment Data - In October, the US added only 12,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 100,000[4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1%, aligning with expectations, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month[4] - The employment market is still in a downward trend, with a three-month moving average of new jobs dropping to 104,000[31] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, US Treasury yields experienced a V-shaped rebound, and the stock market surged, indicating a market interpretation of the data as "just right" for supporting further rate cuts[4] - The current pressure in the US bond market suggests that yields may be overestimated, driven by optimistic economic expectations and pre-election trading dynamics[33] Future Outlook - Post-election, the US stock market is expected to rise, with three main trading themes: macro soft landing, election trading, and earnings season[32] - The performance of major tech stocks and the S&P 493 indicates a significant divergence in earnings, which may lead to a structural shift in market dynamics[32] - Risks include the potential for a hard landing in the US economy and ongoing discrepancies in employment data expectations[33]