11月美联储议息会议解读：降息步伐暂缓

Economic Growth - The US economy is continuing to expand steadily, with Q3 2024 GDP growth at an annualized rate of 2.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter[13] - Actual GDP year-on-year growth has decreased to 2.7%, driven by strong consumer performance but weakened investment[13] Interest Rate Adjustments - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%[4] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have decreased, with a 71% probability for a 25 basis point cut, down from a previous 70% probability for a 50 basis point cut[14] Employment and Inflation Trends - The labor market is cooling, with non-farm payrolls showing a significant decline and the unemployment rate rising, indicating a weakening job market[5][11] - Core inflation remains somewhat elevated, with recent reports showing price increases slightly above expectations, although overall inflation is trending downward[10][11] Future Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's future decisions will be data-dependent, with indications that rate cuts may continue but at a slower pace due to the cooling labor market and inflation trends[4][14] - The overall economic activity is expected to continue slowing, with the potential for further rate adjustments to alleviate restrictive monetary policy[14]