2024年10月外汇储备数据点评：估值效应扰动，汇率短期无忧

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves Overview - As of the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,610.50 billion, a decrease of $55.32 billion month-on-month[2] - The primary reason for the decline in reserves is the valuation effect caused by the rise in US Treasury yields and the appreciation of the US dollar, which led to a decrease of approximately $610 billion in reserves[4] - The estimated impact of the valuation effect on foreign reserves includes a decrease of about $430 billion due to price changes and $200 billion due to exchange rate changes[4] Group 2: Market and Policy Outlook - Looking ahead, it is expected that the short-term valuation factors leading to reserve depreciation may decrease, while trading factors could lead to an increase in reserves[7] - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to maintain a counter-cyclical stance, with a possibility of further reserve requirement ratio cuts by 0.5% within the year[10] - The current fundamental and monetary policy environment suggests a stable RMB exchange rate around 7.0-7.1 against the US dollar, with the dollar index at approximately 105.2[9]