10月外储：汇率贬值不会掣肘货币政策宽松

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - In October 2024, China's official foreign exchange reserves stood at $32610.5 billion, a decrease of $553.2 billion month-on-month, remaining above $32000 billion, indicating manageable international balance of payments pressure[2] - The decline in reserves was primarily due to valuation factors, with an estimated impact of approximately -$997 billion from exchange rate fluctuations and rising bond yields[2] - The US dollar index rose by 3.1% in October, leading to depreciation of non-USD currencies, which negatively affected the foreign reserves[2] Group 2: Currency Exchange Rates - The RMB depreciated by 1.4% against the USD in October, closing at 7.12, which was less than the 3.1% increase in the dollar index[3] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index increased by 1.4% in October, indicating a relative appreciation against a basket of currencies, supported by expectations of fiscal policy implementation[3] - Future RMB exchange rate movements are expected to exhibit increased volatility due to event-driven factors such as US-China relations and trade tensions[4] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The depreciation of the RMB is not expected to hinder the easing of domestic monetary policy, with ample room for further loosening in 2024 and 2025[5] - Potential reserve requirement ratio cuts of 0.25-0.5 percentage points are anticipated, with a total easing space of 160 basis points projected for the year[6] - Continued interest rate cuts are expected, with a focus on aligning with exchange rate conditions, potentially exceeding 20-30 basis points[6] Group 4: Gold Reserves and Market Sentiment - As of October, gold reserves remained unchanged at 7280 tons, maintaining a neutral stance on gold while recognizing its value in optimizing international reserve risk-return profiles[7] - The outlook for gold prices remains positive in the long term, supported by global central bank accumulation and geopolitical uncertainties[7]