国君食饮|预期扭转,内需提振

Industry Investment Rating - Short-term investment recommendation: Focus on demand recovery elasticity [1] Core Views - Domestic demand improvement expectations are heating up, with the liquor industry showing significant elasticity [1] - The liquor industry is expected to see a strong recovery in valuations, with stock prices potentially bottoming out ahead of fundamental recovery [1] - The industry is currently in a phase of inventory digestion and price stabilization, with leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye implementing measures to maintain price systems [2] - By 2025, market share logic will replace price logic, with leading companies expected to adjust product structures and price systems to adapt to external demand environments [2] - Short-term focus is on elasticity, while medium-term focus shifts to performance and market share [3] Short-term Strategy - Short-term investment strategy prioritizes stocks with high elasticity in demand recovery, particularly in the sub-premium liquor segment [3] - Small and mid-cap stocks like Shedejiu, Shuijingfang, and Jiuguijiu are expected to show relative gains due to optimized trading structures [3] Medium-term Strategy - Medium-term strategy emphasizes performance and market share, with leading companies across various price segments expected to emerge from adjustments or achieve market share gains [3] - Companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Yingjiagongjiu, Jinshiyuan, and Gujinggongjiu are highlighted for their performance certainty [3] Industry Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to remain in an adjustment phase for several quarters, but leading companies are planning for growth, with Moutai at the core of these plans [2] - The 2025 Spring Festival is identified as a key observation point for market share dynamics [2]