睿智投资|中国经济 - 特朗普2.0时代对中国意味着什么?

Economic Impact - Trump's policies may boost U.S. economic growth in the short term but lead to stagflation in the long term[2] - Estimated GDP growth reduction for China could be between 0.95% and 1.55% if a new trade war begins[1] - In a pessimistic scenario, U.S. imports, Chinese exports, and China's GDP could decrease by approximately 14.1%, 10.5%, and 3.1% respectively over two years[4] Trade and Investment - Trump's aggressive tariff policies could include a 20% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, potentially igniting a new trade war[3] - The IMF estimates that a new trade war could lower global GDP growth by 0.8% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026[3] - China's direct investment in ASEAN, Mexico, and Hungary may increase as companies seek to diversify markets[4] Policy Responses - China may increase its fiscal deficit by 2-3 trillion yuan to support domestic consumption in response to trade tensions[7] - The People's Bank of China could lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 to 1 percentage points and reduce the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 20-40 basis points[7] Market Reactions - Trump's policies are expected to favor U.S. stocks in the short term due to tax cuts and deregulation, but the long-term impact on stocks is uncertain[8] - The dollar may strengthen against other currencies, with projections suggesting a rise of 4%-10% against the yuan by the end of 2025 depending on tariff scenarios[8]