关于加强同业活期存款利率自律管理的倡议：同业存款定价怎么看？

Industry Rating - The industry rating is Positive (Maintained) [3] Core Views - The proposed "Initiative on Strengthening Self-Discipline Management of Interbank Demand Deposit Rates" aims to prevent恶性竞争 in interbank deposits, improve the transmission of monetary policy rates, and reduce banks' interest payment rates [1] - The initiative suggests that commercial banks should use the 7-day reverse repo rate (currently 1.5%) as the benchmark for pricing interbank demand deposits, aligning them with policy rates to reflect interest rate policy guidance [1] - The high pricing of interbank demand deposits reflects pressure on banks'负债端, partly due to the治理 of manual interest subsidies and the trend of long-term deposits moving to capital markets [2] - From January to September, non-bank deposits increased by 4.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4 trillion yuan [2] Impact on Banks - The interbank demand deposit scale of listed banks is approximately 15 trillion yuan [2] - If interbank demand deposit rates are reduced by 20-30bp, the net interest margin (NIM) of listed banks is expected to increase by 1.3-2.0bp [2] - State-owned banks and joint-stock banks are more affected, with interbank demand deposits accounting for 5.8% and 6.7% of total liabilities, respectively, compared to 2.0% and 0.3% for city and rural commercial banks [2] - The initiative, if implemented, could alleviate banks'息差压力, potentially narrowing the decline in NIM next year [2] Investment Recommendations - The regulation of interbank deposit pricing is expected to reduce banks'负债成本 and ease息差压力 [2] - With稳增长 and化风险 policies推进, the risk assessment of bank stocks is expected to improve [2] - Key recommendations include: 1. Low-valuation stocks benefiting from地产 and城投 risk resolution, such as Ping An Bank and Industrial Bank, with attention to Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Chongqing Bank in Hong Kong [2] 2. Stocks benefiting from declining无风险利率, such as Jiangsu Bank and Shanghai Bank, with attention to state-owned banks and CITIC Bank in Hong Kong [2] 3. Low-valuation leading白马 banks, with a focus on Changshu Bank [2] Data Analysis - Table 1 provides detailed data on interbank demand deposit scales and their impact on NIM for various banks, including ICBC, China Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications [7] - The国有行 sector has an interbank demand deposit scale of 104,272 billion yuan, with a占负债比重 of 5.8% [7] - The股份行 sector has an interbank demand deposit scale of 41,855 billion yuan, with a占负债比重 of 6.7% [7] - The城商行 sector has an interbank demand deposit scale of 4,887 billion yuan, with a占负债比重 of 2.0% [7] Trends - Figure 1 shows the trend of interbank demand deposit scales from 22H1 to 24H1, highlighting the growth in国有行,股份行, and城农商行 sectors [9]