巨星农牧：成本管控优异，Q3猪价回暖带动业绩提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 304 million yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5380.2% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of approximately 3.955 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.6%, with a net profit of 259 million yuan, up 175.7% year-on-year [1] - The company has demonstrated excellent cost control in breeding, with a steady increase in the number of pigs sold [1] - The company sold 1.7335 million pigs in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 32.6%, with Q3 sales reaching 671,700 pigs [1] - The company plans to complete the breeding of all planned sows by Q4 2024 and achieve full production status, aiming to provide market pigs in the first half of 2025 [1] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company's sales gross margin was 26.37%, an increase of 25.01 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s total assets reached 7.721 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 60.8%, a decrease of 1.44 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] - The company’s operating revenue is projected to reach 6.132 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 51.7% [3][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 675 million yuan in 2024, with a significant turnaround from a loss of 645 million yuan in 2023 [3][7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 20.0% in 2024, compared to -0.4% in 2023 [3][7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 8.547 billion yuan and 10.866 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.4% and 27.1% [3][7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.071 billion yuan, with a slight decline to 989 million yuan in 2026 [3][7] - The company aims to maintain a steady growth trajectory in pig production while managing costs effectively [1][3]