牧高笛：第三季度收入下降17%，品牌业务压力加大

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" with a revised reasonable valuation range of 23.4 to 24.6 CNY per share [1][3][10]. Core Views - The company's revenue decreased by 17% in the third quarter, primarily due to a decline in its proprietary brand business, particularly the DaMu brand. Despite this, net profit increased by 2.1% year-on-year to 0.13 billion CNY, driven by non-operating income [1][10]. - The company is expected to face short-term pressure on revenue and profitability in its brand business due to weak domestic consumption and intense industry competition. However, the OEM/ODM business is anticipated to perform steadily [1][10]. - The company continues to invest in enhancing its product, brand, channel, and operational capabilities, which is expected to strengthen its long-term competitive position in the outdoor products sector [1][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, revenue fell by 16.8% to 250 million CNY, with the proprietary brand business experiencing a significant decline [1]. - The gross margin slightly improved by 0.2 percentage points to 28.3%, while the total expense ratio increased by 8.0 percentage points to 27.9% due to higher investments in various operational aspects [1][10]. - The company reported a net loss of 0.06 billion CNY after excluding non-operating items, a decline of 151.6% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit margin of -2.6% [1][10]. Revenue Breakdown - The proprietary brand business saw a year-on-year revenue decline of 8.9% in the first three quarters, with a more pronounced drop of 17.9% in Q3, totaling 200 million CNY [1][10]. - The OEM/ODM business, primarily serving overseas clients, experienced a revenue decline of 3.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 revenue down 11.8% to 50 million CNY [1][10]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 0.9 billion CNY, 1.1 billion CNY, and 1.3 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.6% in 2024 [8][10]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are now set at 1.35 billion CNY, 1.49 billion CNY, and 1.64 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.2% in 2024 [8][10].