2024年11月份美联储议息会议点评：降息25bp幅度符合预期，未来路径保持开放

Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.75%-5.0% to 4.5%-4.75%, a decrease of 25 basis points, which is half of the reduction made in September[1] - This marks the second consecutive meeting where the Fed has decided to cut rates, totaling a reduction of 75 basis points after previously increasing rates by 525 basis points[4] - Market expectations were aligned with the Fed's decision, with a 99% probability of a 25 basis point cut predicted by CME tools prior to the meeting[4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth for Q3 was reported at 2.8%, supported by strong consumer spending, despite some weakness in manufacturing and employment data[3] - The PCE price index showed a decline, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) falling to 2.1% in September, while core PCE remained sticky at 2.7%[3] - Employment data indicated a cooling labor market, with October non-farm payrolls significantly below expectations and rising private layoff rates[3] Future Outlook - The Fed's future rate path remains uncertain due to mixed economic data and the recent U.S. election results, with a 70% probability of another 25 basis point cut in December[3] - The Fed's statement removed previous confidence in inflation moving towards the 2% target, reflecting recent inflation data fluctuations[5] - Powell indicated that the Fed is adopting a more neutral stance on future rate adjustments, with no preset path, depending on economic conditions[5] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, market risk appetite remained high, with a slight retreat in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, while risk assets and Chinese stocks performed well[6] - The report suggests that the outcome of the U.S. election and subsequent government policies will significantly influence future monetary policy decisions[6]