2024年10月进出口数据点评：低基数与抢出口推升出口增速，增量政策需加快推动内需改善

Group 1: Export Performance - In October 2024, China's export amount reached $309 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7%, significantly up by 10.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The export growth was supported by a low base effect from the previous year, where the export amount had decreased by 6.6%[1] - Exports to ASEAN countries increased by 10.8%, contributing 1.7 percentage points to the overall export growth[3] Group 2: Import Trends - In October 2024, the import amount in dollar terms decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, a decline of 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[5] - From January to October 2024, the total import amount was $2.14 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, which is a decrease of 0.5 percentage points compared to earlier figures[5] - The import of raw materials like crude oil and iron ore showed negative growth, with crude oil imports down by 2.8% and iron ore by 1.6%[5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The report indicates that the export growth may face pressure in the future due to the fading "rush to export" effect and uncertainties following the recent U.S. elections[6] - The manufacturing PMI for October returned to above the neutral line, suggesting a potential improvement in domestic demand[6] - The overall trade data reflects a strong export performance but weak import growth, indicating a need for policies to stimulate domestic demand[6]