大类资产配置月观点

Group 1: A-Share Timing Signal - The A-share signal is 0/4, indicating a neutral view. The fundamental signals are bearish, while the funding sentiment signals are bullish. The international influence signal is neutral, and the improved ERP has not issued a bullish signal [6][7]. Group 2: Bond Timing Signal - The China bond signal is -1/3, indicating a bearish signal. The fundamentals are bearish, with the PMI showing economic recovery. Trading sentiment is bearish, and market interest rates are bullish, with credit bonds signaling a focus on value [8][9]. Group 3: Gold Timing Signal - The overall gold signal is 1/9, indicating a weak bullish signal. Five indicators are bullish, including PMI and VIX, while four indicators are bearish, such as actual interest rates and the dollar index. The combination of strong dollar, high inflation, and low interest rates supports the gold market [10][11]. Group 4: US Treasury Timing Signal - The US Treasury signal is -6/7, indicating a bearish signal. Most indicators are bearish, including production and inflation. The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with increased uncertainty around inflation and fiscal deficits [12][13]. Group 5: US Stock Timing Signal - The US stock signal is 6/9, indicating a strong bullish signal. Key indicators such as employment and financial pressure are bullish, while inflation signals are bearish. The election outcome is expected to positively impact corporate earnings through tax cuts [14][15]. Group 6: Japanese Stock Timing Signal - The Japanese stock signal is -2/6, indicating a bearish signal. Indicators supporting Japanese stocks include overseas trade, while bearish indicators include the Japanese economy and inflation. The uncertainty remains high due to potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [16][17].