电力系列专题报告（十六）：四十载周期为鉴，压电价已非必选

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utilities sector, specifically focusing on the power industry [2][4] Core Views - The report argues that "reducing electricity prices" is no longer the core policy focus in the new cycle of building a new power system, with limited downside risks for long-term contract electricity prices in 2025 [2][4] - The government's priority has shifted to "ensuring power supply security" and "low-carbon transformation," with electricity price stability expected to drive a revaluation of power assets [4][9] - The report highlights that the historical trend of electricity price increases has outpaced overall industrial product prices, with the electricity industry PPI index rising by 558% from 1979 to 2023, compared to a 197% increase in the overall industrial PPI index [8][14] Industry Analysis Historical Electricity Price Trends - The report divides China's electricity price development into five stages, emphasizing the balance between "supply security" and "low prices" [15][16] - 1985 and before: Highly planned pricing era with limited supply growth [16] - 1986-1997: Debt repayment pricing era, encouraging investment with significant price increases [17][18] - 1998-2004: Operational period pricing era, aiming to control price increases while maintaining investment [19][22] - 2005-2021: Benchmark pricing and market reform era, with electricity price increases lagging behind industrial prices [24][25] - 2022 and beyond: New power system era, with electricity prices rising faster than industrial prices [28][29] New Power System Challenges - The report identifies challenges in the new power system, including peak load demand, increasing renewable energy integration, and high energy prices [30][31] - The government's focus has shifted to ensuring power supply security and low-carbon transformation, with less emphasis on reducing electricity prices [9][33] Regional Power Supply and Demand - The report provides a detailed analysis of regional power supply and demand from 2016 to 2024, highlighting tight supply in certain regions during peak periods [32][33] - In 2024, the national power supply and demand are expected to remain tight, with regional differences in long-term contract electricity prices [54][58] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on power companies in regions with tight supply-demand conditions, such as the Yangtze River Delta, and vertically integrated coal-power companies [4][63] - Specific recommendations include: - Hydropower: Yangtze Power, Sichuan Energy [4][63] - Thermal Power: Guodian Power, Shenergy, Inner Mongolia Huadian [4][63] - Nuclear Power: CGN Power (H), China National Nuclear Power [4][63] Market and Policy Dynamics - The report notes that local governments prioritize reducing industrial electricity costs rather than lowering coal-power prices, with limited impact on long-term contract prices [40][41] - The share of high-energy-consuming industries in electricity consumption is declining, reducing the sensitivity of industrial users to electricity costs [44][46] - The report predicts that the downward pressure on coal-power long-term contract prices in 2025 will be limited, with regional variations [53][54]