汽车行业2024年三季报总结：价格战告一段落，以旧换新托底景气度

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive and auto parts industry [2] Core Views - The domestic automotive industry saw a 2.4% YoY increase in sales for 2024Q1-Q3, with passenger vehicles outperforming the overall industry [3] - The automotive manufacturing sector achieved a total revenue of 7,359.3 billion yuan, up 3.4% YoY, but profits declined by 2.9% YoY [3] - The sales profit margin for the industry was 4.6%, with a combined expense ratio of 5.3%, indicating a slight decline in net profit margin compared to the same period in 2023 [3] Sector Performance Passenger Vehicles - Passenger vehicle sales increased by 3.0% YoY in 2024Q1-Q3, with SUV sales growing by 8.3% YoY [23] - The passenger vehicle sector saw a 20.3% YoY decline in revenue and a 74.6% YoY drop in net profit in Q3 [4] - Despite price wars, the sector's gross margin stabilized, and profitability is expected to recover in Q4 [25] Commercial Vehicles (Trucks and Buses) - Truck sales declined by 2.4% YoY in 2024Q1-Q3, while bus sales increased by 4.3% YoY [28] - The truck sector's revenue fell by 7.9% YoY in Q3, but net profit only declined by 3.0% YoY, with gross and net margins improving slightly [38][39] - The bus sector saw a 35.0% YoY increase in net profit in Q3, driven by a recovery in demand [35] Auto Parts - The auto parts sector achieved a 5.3% YoY increase in revenue and a 12.0% YoY rise in net profit for 2024Q1-Q3 [41] - Gross and net margins improved slightly, supported by downstream sales growth [42] New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - NEV sales grew by 32.5% YoY in 2024Q1-Q3, with plug-in hybrid vehicles showing particularly strong growth [44] - The NEV sector's revenue increased by 3.8% YoY in Q3, with net profit rising by 5.0% YoY [47] - Gross and net margins improved, indicating a recovery in profitability as price wars eased [47] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on passenger vehicle companies like Li Auto, BYD, and Geely, as well as NEV leaders such as Tesla and XPeng [58] - In the auto parts sector, companies like Bethel, Nexteer, and Top Group are recommended for their focus on industrial upgrading and growth opportunities [58] - For commercial vehicles, companies like Sinotruk, CIMC Vehicles, and Weichai Power are highlighted for their domestic recovery and overseas growth potential [59]