美护行业24年三季报总结：分化加剧，稳健细分龙头值得期待

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The cosmetics industry is experiencing pressure on demand, with a slight decline in retail sales growth of -1% for the first three quarters of 2024, influenced by a downturn in consumer sentiment and increased competition from domestic brands [2][13]. - The beauty care sector has shown a mixed performance, with some companies like Proya and Marubi achieving over 20% revenue growth, while others like Betaini and Water Sheep are facing declines [2][21]. - In the medical beauty segment, collagen and regenerative products maintain high growth rates, with companies like Jinbo Bio achieving a 91% revenue increase in the first three quarters of 2024 [2][19]. Industry Overview - The beauty care index has increased by 3.8% year-to-date as of November 7, 2024, but remains below the performance of the CSI 300 index, indicating a weaker industry performance primarily due to demand slowdown and rising costs [4][9]. - The market is characterized by significant stock price divergence, with companies like Giant Biological and Shiseido showing substantial gains, while others like Furuida and Betaini have seen notable declines [4][12]. Company Performance - For the cosmetics sector, the nine brand companies reported revenues of 86 billion yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a 3% increase year-on-year, but with a significant drop in net profit by 43% [21][22]. - The medical beauty sector is seeing a structural shift, with high growth in specific product categories, despite overall market pressures [19][21]. - Companies such as Aibiying and Jiangsu Wuzhong are highlighted for their strong product portfolios and growth potential in the regenerative product space [3][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong single-product momentum and multi-brand strategies, such as Proya and Giant Biological, as well as second-tier brands benefiting from affordable consumption trends [3][19]. - In the medical beauty sector, attention is drawn to companies with robust product pipelines and market positions, particularly in collagen and regenerative products [3][19].