大消费行业2025年度策略：预期先行，顺势而为

Group 1 - Industry Investment Rating: Positive outlook for the consumer sector [2] - Core Viewpoint: The report emphasizes the need to shift focus from supply-side to demand-side to stimulate economic growth, highlighting the importance of consumer spending in China's GDP [4][22] - Key Policies: The government has introduced various measures to boost consumer confidence, including a special bond fund of approximately 150 billion yuan for consumer goods, interest rate reductions on existing housing loans, and the issuance of consumption vouchers [4][24] Group 2 - Domestic Consumption: The report notes that China's consumption as a percentage of GDP has declined from 63.57% in 2000 to 53.44% in 2022, indicating room for growth in consumer spending [4][22] - Export Manufacturing: Companies in the export manufacturing sector have maintained a revenue growth rate of over 30%, showcasing strong growth potential despite market sentiment influenced by tariff issues [5] - Consumer Growth Stocks: The report identifies high-growth consumer products and companies, such as Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold, with expected net profit growth exceeding 100% for the year, suggesting a strong trend in interest-driven consumption and domestic luxury goods replacement [6]